High Water Mark

At the end of the 2004 US presidential elections, it was clear the Bush had won the popular vote. However, there was still a chance that an extended recount in Ohio could pull in the election for Kerry.

At Vindica, I had spoken that it was unfair for Kerry to call for a recount given how much the Democrats had moralized about Bush winning the election without a popular vote in 2000. Commenting the Kerry should concede the election, I also mentioned that the talk of a permanent majority for the Republicans was clearly not borne out by the nuances that the election results threw up. It was clear that the party had lost the middle ground and the long term prognosis for its base was not good.

Based on these assumptions, I commented that 2004 may represent the "high water mark" of the Reagan style Republicanism. I was tempted to call victory in 2006, but refrained because I felt the tide had not turned completely.

However, now with the decisive victory of Barack Obama, that day has finally arrived. The question now is whether this election represents the high point for the Democratic party? Considering the size of their victory, it is possible that this is indeed the peak. However, Obama is the wild card. The depressing Economic outlook, far from causing difficulties, provides Obama with the ideal vehicle to become a truly great President. If he succeeds, the Democrats are going to be around the government for a while yet. If he fails, the fault will not be placed on his head alone, and the Democratic party will begin a gentle decline.

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